Where The July Jobs Were: “Obamacare Again Offset Weak Industrial, Consumer Sector”

By Tyler Durden | Created 08/05/2016 – 09:42

While last month’s outlier spike in Information-related jobs, which saw 42K tech sector created in June, has come and gone, the breakdown of the July job additions confirms that some recently well-known trends continue, namely that the bulk of new jobs added remain in low-paying industries. Not only that, but some frank question marks emerge, like for example how did the government add 27K education jobs in July (out of a toal 38K) at a time when shools don’t hire. The answer: seasonal adjustments and model quirks.

So where were the July jobs? As our friends at Southbay Research point out, “Obamacare jobs offset weak Industrial and Consumer payrolls

The breakdown:

  • Consumer demand is wobbly
    • Construction: Weak
    • Retail: Weak
  • Industrial Sector and related ecosystem remains weak but has bottomed
    • Mining (-7K)
    • Manufacturing (+9K)
    • Truck & Rail (+1k)
    • Temp (+17K)
  • Obamacare to the rescue: Healthcare +49K
    • Leisure & Hospitality (+45K) surges on extra convention-related hiring
  • Construction: Despite claims of a strong housing market, Construction payrolls are the weakest since 2012, consistent with SouthBay data which shows a sudden sharp decline in hiring at homebuilders. Reflecting the slowdown, Building Material Retail jobs were also weak (-1K).
  • Retail (+15K): Peak Auto sales is evident in Auto payrolls (+1K)
  • Temp (+17K)
  • Election Year Payrolls: Advertising (+3K)

And the full breakdown:


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